Slow Moving Front

Updateed 10:20 AM

Updated 9:00 AM
The front has moved very little east in the last two hours. The will continue to slowly move east but, in the mean time our temperatueres will continue to warm into the 70s..
Front Position at 9AM

Updated 7:30 AM
A slow moving cold front in northwest Iowa will pass through eastern Iowa this evening. In advance of it, temperatures will warm into the 70s. A few showers will be possible this afternoon through tomorrow when temperatures fall below average. Morning lows tomorrow will be 20 degrees cooler than this morning. Highs will be in the upper 50s and stay there through the week. The map below shows the position of the front this morning:
Front position at 7AM

Rain amounts due to the front will be light.
Rain Forecast 7AM Mon-7AM Tue

Update on Friday’s Post

Even though I am not working I thought I would check and see how the latest computer model run is comparing to this past Friday. Look back at the previous post and compare how things have changed. The Tuesday October 21 time frame is much different. Now it shows warmer weather and no where close to seeing any cold or snow. As for the 25th of October it does still show cold weather but not as much moisture. Both of these could change many times before we get to this time frame. If you look at long range models every day most of the time you will see this kind of thing. One day a large storm will show up and the next it is gone and high pressure is there. Once we get within 7 days the accuracy of the forecast goes up and the computer models get a better handle of what the atmosphere is doing. I hope everyone is enjoying a great fall weekend. I will see you tomorrow on Today in Iowa. I will also take a look at what tomorrows model run shows for the below time frames. Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Tuesday October 21

Saturday October 25

How About Snow On The Ground By Halloween?

Each morning I look at all kinds of computer models and interesting weather or science related topics to post on the blog. Well today I decided to post about cold and snow. That is right cold and snow…I am not ready either. I want you to get out and enjoy the nice weather this weekend because eventually cold weather will be here. It might be sooner than we want….how about the end of October? That is right. By the end of October the GFS model brings in cold air and a couple of chances of snow for Iowa. Looking this far out with computer models is more for trends than anything specific. Only time will tell what will happen. Below are the two times in question from the GFS model. I will track this to see how this pans out. The blue line through Iowa on Tuesday and just south if Iowa on Saturday is roughly the rain/snow line. Prepare your Halloween costumes appropriately.

Tuesday October 21

Saturday October 25

Here is a taste of winter. This is a web camera shot from this morning in Bozemen, Montana

Click here for other cameras in Montana

Clouds and Showers

7:15 AM Update
There are scattered light showers, with isolated moderate showers, all across Iowa. They are moving north around 30-35 mph. The showers will remain scattered about throughout the day. At any point and any where a shower is possible until about 9 or 10 PM. This is when the showers will taper off and remain cloudy overnight. Temperatures this morning are mild in the 50s and low 60s. Clouds and showers will keep temperatures from warming very much today. In reality our highs today will be near normal.

A Warm Fall Day

Some sunshine and a south wind today will help push temperatures into the 70s for highs. Tonight the clouds will thicken up and isolated showers will be possible after midnight. Tomorrow scattered showers can be expected at any point and anywhere. Thunderstorms to our south tomorrow could prevent us from seeing heavier amounts of rain.
Rain Forecast 7AM Mon-7AM Wed

The rain in Nebraska and Kansas will be widespread through the day but as it moves east is falls apart a bit through Iowa. So rain amounts will be about 0.50". It will depend on if there are thunderstorms to our south tomorrow. Temperatures behind this system will not be cold. Temperatures this week will be near are October averages. We do need some rain around here. It has been pretty dry lately across our northern counties into Minnesota. Here is the latest Drought Monitor from the end of last week.

Warm Temps Turn Colder Next Week

This morning a cold front is passing through the state. Showers and thunderstorms last night were the result of the front.
Surface Map
As the front moves east of the state late this morning…high pressure will help quickly follow and clear the sky this afternoon. The sky is already clearing in northwest Iowa and the clouds will clear in eastern Iowa late this morning into the early afternoon from west to east.
Satellite
The wind today will not be as strong as yesterday and it will be from the northwest. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler but, still above average. Our warm stretch of weather will continue into the weekend before much cooler weather moves south by the middle of next week. Take a look at the colder air moving in behind a big storm system on the east coast. To contrast this, temperatures over the Rockies will be well above average.
GFS Model Wed AM

A Cold Front Approaches

Morning Surface Map
This morning a cold front was approaching from the west. It will set off showers and thunderstorms in western Iowa and Minnesota late this afternoon. There is a slight risk for a severe storm in western Iowa.
Severe Weather Outlook Today/Tonight
As the storms move into eastern Iowa after sunset they will weaken. The front will be located along the Mississippi River by sunrise tomorrow with just a few light showers lingering. High pressure will provide us with a dry day tomorrow with lower humidity and less wind. Today in advance of the front the wind will be gusty from the south at 15-25 mph. Rain amounts will be generally 0.25"-0.50" with isolated higher amounts where storms will be. 

Rain Forecasts 7AM Tue-7AM Thu

Tuesday Morning GFS Model
Yesterday I talked about the potential for much cooler temperatures next week. This morning the models are showing the cooler weather but, not as much as indicated by yesterdays model run. The 4 panel chart above shows different weather parameters to help forecast. Notice the top left panel. This helps in forecasting temperatures. The greenish/blue color across Iowa becomes more blue as you look into southeast Canada. The darker the blue the colder the weather. If you compare that to yesterdays chart….the colder air is a bit more east. It is something I will be tracking over the next several days.

Computer Model Forecast
As of this post, the heavy rain over Puerto Rico has not organized enough to give it tropical storm status. The next name would be Kyle. The computer models indicate an eventual northward movement. Once it gets toward Bermuda models vary a lot.

Warm Days as Fall Begins

The Autumnal Equinox (Fall) begins at 10:44 AM today. The equinox is when the sun is located directly over the equator. Here are a few links to help explain our seasons.

Link 1

Link 2

Link 3

I have had many people during the start of Fall and Spring ask if it is true they can balance an egg on its end on those days. You can balance an egg on its end on those days and any of the day of the year as long as you have a flat surface and a lot of patience…it has nothing to do with the equinox. Click here for more information on this myth or another link here.

Now on to the forecast. It is going to be another week with above normal temperatures and little or no rain. A cold front will weaken and fall apart as it moves across Iowa Tuesday and Wednesday. We might see a few showers Tuesday night and Wednesday but, nothing widespread or heavy is expected. The GFS model for Friday morning shows a big storm off the east coast. This could be the next named tropical storm system…Kyle.

You know at some point the above normal temperatures will have to end. Well, looking ahead to next week there is some indication we may see some colder air move in from Canada on the back side of a large storm in the western Great Lakes. We will be tracking this all week for the potential of much cooler air. Way too early for any specifics. Check back through the week for more information.

This has to do with weather in a round about way. Yesterday was the Fall Harvest Festival & Scarecrow Contest at the Cedar Valley Arboretum & Botanic Gardens at Hawkeye Community College. One of the tents to help raise money was the Pie in the Eye tent. Danielle Wagner and I were glad to help raise some money and have whipped cream filled paper plates tossed at us. It was a lot of fun, messy and tasty.
 

Heavy Rain in Iowa

Today will be cloudy with an isolated shower until late this afternoon and evening when the rain becomes more widespread. Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight and tomorrow with heavy rain possible. An area of low pressure will move northeast across Iowa tomorrow. The showers will taper off tomorrow evening.

Flash Flood Watch

Rain Forecast 7AM Fri-7AM Sun

Showers/Storms

An cluster of showers and thunderstorms are moving across northeast and east central Iowa this morning with heavy downpours. Cedar Rapids has received 1.10" of rain at of 5:30 this morning. One to two inches of rain is possible when showers and thunderstorms pass through. There is another area of rain approaching western Iowa. We can expect that early this afternoon but there is a chance of a shower or two to develop in advance of that at any time. No severe weather is expected with any of the storms.

24 Hour Rain Totals
7AM Wed-7AM Thu
Official number in BOLD

1.15"…0.4 mi W Norway
1.10"…Cedar Rapids
1.04"…Waterloo
1.01"…1.4 mi SSE Cedar Falls
0.99"… Waterloo
0.96"…Waverly
0.93"…6.7 mi W Central City
0.90"…Bertram
0.89"…Cedar Rapids
0.84"…Clarksville
0.82"…2.5 mi SSW Anamosa
0.82"…Cedar Falls
0.88"…Hudson
0.86"…0.5 mi SE Ely
0.76"…1.8 mi S Quasqueton
0.74"…1.2 mi NE Marion
0.71"…Shell Rock
0.68"…Dike
0.67"…Charles City
0.65"…Winthrop
0.62"…Elkader
0.59"…Vinton
0.52"…Iowa City
0.50"…0.3 mi ESE Solon
0.45"…What Cheer
0.36"…Littleport
0.35"…3.2 mi S Waucoma
0.34"…Oelwein
0.30"…Tripoli
0.25"…3 mi W Marquette
0.24"…Manchester
0.20"…New Hampton
0.20"…West Union
0.20"…Dubuque
0.14"…Garber

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposure.