A Cold Front Approaches

Morning Surface Map
This morning a cold front was approaching from the west. It will set off showers and thunderstorms in western Iowa and Minnesota late this afternoon. There is a slight risk for a severe storm in western Iowa.
Severe Weather Outlook Today/Tonight
As the storms move into eastern Iowa after sunset they will weaken. The front will be located along the Mississippi River by sunrise tomorrow with just a few light showers lingering. High pressure will provide us with a dry day tomorrow with lower humidity and less wind. Today in advance of the front the wind will be gusty from the south at 15-25 mph. Rain amounts will be generally 0.25"-0.50" with isolated higher amounts where storms will be. 

Rain Forecasts 7AM Tue-7AM Thu

Tuesday Morning GFS Model
Yesterday I talked about the potential for much cooler temperatures next week. This morning the models are showing the cooler weather but, not as much as indicated by yesterdays model run. The 4 panel chart above shows different weather parameters to help forecast. Notice the top left panel. This helps in forecasting temperatures. The greenish/blue color across Iowa becomes more blue as you look into southeast Canada. The darker the blue the colder the weather. If you compare that to yesterdays chart….the colder air is a bit more east. It is something I will be tracking over the next several days.

Computer Model Forecast
As of this post, the heavy rain over Puerto Rico has not organized enough to give it tropical storm status. The next name would be Kyle. The computer models indicate an eventual northward movement. Once it gets toward Bermuda models vary a lot.